Deprem uzmanı Sözbilir, İzmir'i böyle uyardı: "Tuzla fayına karşı önlem alınmalı!"
İzmir’de 17 diri fay olduğunu belirten Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir, özellikle Tuzla fayının yaratacağı depreme dikkat çekerek, “Bu aşamada yapılması gereken şey, 30 ilçede yapı stokunu bir an önce çıkartmak, güçlendirme veya yıkma çalışmalarını yapmaktır. Son 20 yılda bununla ilgili hiçbir şey yapılmadı” dedi.
İzmir'in sismik tehlike kaynakları açısından zengin olduğunun 2000 yılından beri bilindiğini dile getiren Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Deprem Araştırma ve Uygulama Merkezi (DAUM) Müdürü Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir, "1998-2000 döneminde Türkiye'nin ilk deprem master planı- RADİUS tamamlanmıştı. Bu projede 1998 yılına kadar mevcut jeoloji, jeofizik verilerine göre fay ve zemin özellikleri ortaya konmuş, mevcut yapı stoku envanterine göre bir deprem senaryosu gerçekleştirilmişti" dedi.
SON 23 YILI KAPSAMIYOR
Bu senaryoda İzmir fayının 6.5 büyüklüğünde bir deprem üretmesi durumunda oluşacak can ve mal kaybının tahmin edilmeye çalışıldığını belirten Prof. Dr. Sözbilir, "Deprem sırasında yıkılacak binalar, devre dışı kalacak yol, viyadük, köprüler belirlenmişti. Fakat, geçen 20 yıllık süre içinde asgari düzeyde yapılması gerekenlerin dahi yapılamadığını, 30 Ekim 2020 depreminden anlıyoruz" şeklinde konuştu.
Yaptıkları çalışmalarda 1688 depremine neden olan İzmir fayının yakın bir gelecekte kırılmasının düşük bir ihtimal olduğunu fakat Tuzla fayının kuzey segmentinin 2000 yıldır kırılmadığı yönünde veriler elde edildiğini ifade eden Prof. Dr. Sözbilir, "RADİUS projesinden 23 yıl gibi bir süre geçmesinden dolayı, son 23 yıldaki yapı stokunu içermediği ve bu nedenle günümüzde geçerliliğini yitirdiği düşünüldüğünden YÖK tarafından Araştırma Destek Programı (ADEP) kapsamında Türkiye Deprem Master Planı standartlarını belirleme projesi başlatıldı. Bu standartların İzmir kentine uygulanması kararlaştırıldı" dedi.
TEHLİKE DÜZEYİ BELİRLENDİ
Buradaki amacın İzmir'e doğal afet eksenli güncel bir deprem master planı hazırlamak ve Tuzla fayı üzerinden bir deprem senaryosu uygulayarak, deprem öncesi hasar tahmin çalışması yapabilmek olduğunu dile getiren Prof. Dr. Sözbilir, "Bu aşamada yapılması gereken şey, 30 ilçede yapı stokunu bir an önce çıkartmak, güçlendirmek veya yıkma çalışmalarını yapmaktır. Bölgede başta DEÜ olmak üzere farklı üniversiteler tarafından yürütülen çalışmalarda da İzmir'in deprem tehlike düzeyinin anlaşılmasına çalışılmaktadır" diye konuştu. Maden Tetkik Arama Enstitüsü'nün (MTA) 2005 yılında yayınladığı raporda İzmir il sınırları içinde 13 diri fay olduğunun belirtildiğini aktardı.
"İZMİR'DE 17 DİRİ FAY VAR"
Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir, "2014 yılında yapılan çalışmalarda diri fay/ potansiyel diri fay sayısı 17'ye çıkarıldı. 2019 yılında DEÜ-DAUM tarafından İzmir'i etkileme potansiyeli olan 5 fay üzerinde çalışmalar yapıldı ve 2021 yılında tamamlandı. Bunun yanında 2022 yılında Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi'nin yürütücülüğünde Dokuz Eylül, Cumhuriyet ve Çukurova Üniversiteleri ile bir TÜBİTAK projesi başlatıldı. Bu projede İzmir'i gelecekte etkileme potansiyeli olan Dağkızılca, Mordoğan, Kemalpaşa, Menemen, Bergama, Yeni Foça, Zeytindağ, Gümüldür ve Güzelhisar fayları üzerinde hendek tabanlı paleosismoloji çalışmaları yapılmaktadır. Bu projeden çıkacak sonuçlara göre, hangi fayların yakın gelecekte deprem üretme potansiyeli içerdiği anlaşılmış olacak. Yine DEÜ'nün özkaynaklarıyla yürüttüğümüz deprem erken uyarı sistemi projesinde 6 aylık test aşamasına
gelmiş bulunmaktayız" dedi. (Y.ASIR)
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